Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions AFL Grand Final 2024: Odds, Predictions and Key Matchups
Odds, venue and weather
The showdown lands at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, September 28, with a 2:30 pm AEST tip‑off. The forecast is almost perfect for footy – 22°C, a few clouds and a gentle breeze that won’t toss the ball around too much. Bookmakers have the Swans listed at about $1.73 to win, while the Lions sit near $2.09. In the spread, Sydney is given a 3.5‑point edge and the total points line is set at 172.5.
Those numbers tell a story: Sydney are modest favourites but the game is still close enough to keep the betting crowd talking. The odds reflect their dominant run during the season, but they also remind us that Brisbane have been tough opponents, especially in head‑to‑head clashes.
Team form and injury updates
Sydney’s road to the Grand Final has been a roller‑coaster of consistency. They started by winning 13 of their first 14 matches, stumbled a bit in the middle of the season, then hit a purple patch right when it mattered. Their preliminary final was a statement – a 36‑point demolition of Port Adelaide (95‑59) at the SCG. That performance showed they can lock the midfield, apply relentless pressure and finish the scoreboard cleanly.
Brisbane’s journey has been more about resilience. It’s their first Grand Final appearance since 2003, and they fought their way through a tough finals series. The biggest blow for the Lions is ruckman Oscar McInerney, who hurt his shoulder twice in the semi‑final win over Geelong. Coach Chris Fagan confirmed the 200‑cm giant is out, leaving a gap in the ruck contests. The only realistic replacement on the day could be Darcy Fort, who hasn’t played since Round 7 and will be itching for a comeback.
Injury concerns also hover over the Swans. Captain Callum Mills missed the preliminary final with a hamstring issue picked up two weeks earlier. He’s listed as doubtful – if he can’t sprint at full tilt, Sydney lose a key defensive leader. Forward Logan McDonald was taken off in the last match because of an ankle problem; the exact severity is still being assessed. Midfielder Taylor Adams also looks set to miss a second straight Grand Final, which would thin Sydney’s bench depth.
Midfield match‑ups are shaping up to be the game‑changer. Sydney rely heavily on Chad Warner and Isaac Heeney, who drove the team’s ball‑winning ability in the prelims. Their blend of speed, size and an instinct for the ball makes them a nightmare to stop. Brisbane, on the other hand, play a high‑risk, high‑reward style that leans on quick transitions and contested marks. Their midfielders will have to cope with Sydney’s pressure and keep the ball moving cleanly to give the forwards a chance.
Head‑to‑head history tips the scale a bit. Brisbane have won five of the last six meetings, including a classic clash at the Gabba that saw five lead changes in the final quarter. That recent dominance could give the Lions a psychological edge, but Sydney’s defensive setup looks tighter than ever.
Experts are largely siding with the Swans. A popular analysis predicts a 16‑point win for Sydney, pointing to their defensive solidity and midfield depth. ESPN’s tip comes in at 17 points, while a statistical model gives Sydney a 56 % probability of taking the premiership, forecasting a final score around 85‑80. The consensus range sits between 10 and 17 points in Sydney’s favour.
Both squads have hit peak form over the past three weeks. Sydney’s balanced approach – solid defence, efficient ball movement, and a midfield that can dictate tempo – appears to match up well against Brisbane’s more aggressive, attack‑focused game plan. The loss of McInerney is a real setback for the Lions, especially in the middle‑area contests where size and aerial power matter.
As the curtain falls on what’s been an extraordinary AFL season, the Grand Final promises a clash of styles, a battle of injuries and a final test of who can handle the pressure on the biggest stage. Whether you’re a Swans supporter hoping the captain can shake off that hamstring, or a Lion fan counting on a surprise ruck return, the game is set to be a tightly fought affair that could swing on a single play.